Category Archives: Transition

Learning to be Precarious – Transition of Young People from School into Precarious Work

The integration of young adults into the labor market is a challenge for every society. Because Germany survived the current crisis quite well and youth unemployment rate is more or less stable, the German apprenticeship-system, Duale Ausbildung, became a kind … Continue reading

Posted in Precarious work, Transition, Vocational training | Tagged , ,

The Complexity of Transitions

Models that belong to the realm of complexity studies turn very insightful when addressing societal and technological transitions. The very idea of transition finds direct counterparts in a number of phenomena in natural sciences, the most notable one being phase … Continue reading

Posted in Complexity, Complexity & change, Technological change, Technological transitions, Transition, Transition management | Tagged , , , , ,

Complex Systems Regime Shift – Readings I

For a Complex Systems point of view. Towards sustainability, it is important to understand the dynamics of socio-ecological systems, as complex adaptive systems. An essential aspect of such complex systems is nonlinearity, leading to historical dependency and multiple possible outcomes … Continue reading

Posted in Complex adaptive system, Reading, Resilience, Socio-ecological systems, Sustainability, System regime, Tipping point, Transition | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Tipping Points

This paper formally defines tipping points as a discontinuity between current and future states of a system and introduces candidate measures of when a system tips based on changes in the probability distribution over future states. We make two categorical … Continue reading

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Early-warning signals for Critical Transitions

Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate, can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may occur. Although predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult, … Continue reading

Posted in Complex dynamical systems, Complex system, Critical transition, Early-warning signals, Thresholds, Tipping point, Transition | Tagged , , , , , ,

Anticipating Critical Transitions

Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can be boosted by combining emerging insights from two unconnected fields of research. One line … Continue reading

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Resilience Thinking and Large-scale Transformations in Social-ecological Systems

Despite pleas for major change, there is still a lack of understanding of the mechanisms and patterns involved, and of the conditions under which critical transformations can emerge. This lack of understanding greatly decreases the chances for successfully navigating transformation … Continue reading

Posted in Governance, Resilience, Socio-ecological systems, Thresholds, Transformation, Transition | Tagged , , , , ,

Evolutionary Transitions – How do levels of Complexity Emerge?

It is a common observation that complex systems have a nested or hierarchical structure: they consist of subsystems, which themselves consist of subsystems, and so on, until the simplest components we know, elementary particles. It is also generally accepted that … Continue reading

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Understanding Phase Transitions for Social Change

The great challenges of the 21st Century are systemic in nature.  From ecological decline to cybersecurity in a digital age, the patterns of change we must grapple with are profoundly complex.  Change agents will need to understand how change unfolds … Continue reading

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Approaching a State Shift in Earth’s Biosphere

Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and … Continue reading

Posted in Critical transition, Ecological systems, Ecosystem, Shift, Tipping point, Transition | Tagged , , , , ,